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Original here: https://www.youtube.com/live/p....pq9toSNWDQ?si=F0eBCK
Tousi TV livestream recording about Henry Nowak

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Today, there are important updates from the Liman direction.  

Here, the gap between Russian official maps and battlefield reality around Liman has become extraordinary, as Russian command maps place their furthest claimed positions roughly forty kilometers west of the actual frontline and attribute another one-thousand-three-hundred-and-sixty square kilometers to Russian control. Such claims are based on an apparently AI-generated video purporting to show a Russian soldier in Chervonyi Oskil, after which Russian sources claimed the settlement had been captured, causing reaction from Russian military analysts, who are increasingly criticizing this trend of exaggerated reporting.

That fictional picture has become increasingly difficult to preserve as Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi advances. To counter this in the information space, Russia’s Western Grouping of Forces released footage supposedly demonstrating continued Russian presence in Nove, Ridkodub, and other recently liberated settlements by the Ukrainians. But analysts quickly identified indications that the footage was archival, with the videos filmed when Russian forces originally captured these locations in two-thousand-twenty-five, before Ukraine’s counterattack, showing vegetation inconsistent with current conditions. Another clip from Ridkodub showed a Russian soldier moving through the settlement while Ukrainian FPV drones pursued him, but visual comparisons placed the recording around August last year.  

Russian military commentators have consequently begun attacking their own command’s response with the argument that the Ukrainian counterattack itself is less damaging than pretending it does not exist. Instead of acknowledging setbacks, determining why defenses failed and correcting them, Russian commanders publish old footage and maintain an increasingly fictional frontline, which creates consequences extending far beyond symbolic claims.

Russian soldiers witnessing Ukrainian advances while official channels insist nothing significant has happened have less reason to trust their commanders. Russian analysts have repeatedly warned that distorted reporting also damages battlefield decision-making: commanders can allocate reserves, artillery and drone coverage according to positions that exist on maps but not on the ground. The resulting disconnect can leave troops isolated and encourage demoralized soldiers to seek information elsewhere.

The real battlefield situation around Liman demonstrates why this matters, as Ukraine officially announced that its Third Army Corps has liberated settlement after settlement, releasing footage weeks after the events for operational security. The earlier penetration around Nove was particularly revealing, as the Ukrainian forces converted an old BTR into an unmanned explosive vehicle and managed to drive the relatively slow machine toward Russian defenses. Its ability to approach the target suggested Russian drone observation and fire control were not present there, because according to Russian maps, there was no threat to Ridkodub.  

Now Ukrainian pressure is extending toward the Zherebets River. Russian sources themselves have acknowledged Ukrainian activity around crossings and positions near Terny, while Ukrainian strikes against crossing points and rear logistics are complicating Russian resupply. Every restricted crossing creates another bottleneck where vehicles, ammunition and reinforcements become vulnerable to drones.

Yet Russian information management continues trying to preserve a battlefield picture increasingly contradicted even by Russian analysts. After losing substantial territory and suffering significant casualties, commanders are still releasing archival or AI-generated footage and defending claims built upon earlier exaggerated advances.

Overall, Russia may claim that the Lyman front has stabilized, but fighting remains active around the Zherebets approaches, with Ukrainian infiltrators crossing the river for quick raids. Ukraine is simultaneously applying ground pressure, attacking the crossings methodically and disrupting Russian rear logistics. The widening distance between Russia’s declared frontline and the battlefield itself is therefore becoming more than an information problem: it risks actively undermining Russia’s ability to organize the defense it now urgently needs to stop Ukraine’s counteroffensive and to prevent the Russian defense line behind the river from collapsing completely.

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In this video, we will analyze why Russia is preparing to see the frontlines in Crimea.

Here, the situation became so dire for the Russians that they started to fear a full-scale attack from the Black Sea. Now, they are digging in and preparing for the worst as the peninsula grows more exposed by the day.

Recently, Russia has become alarmed about Crimea and started the construction of a Black Sea wall to defend the peninsula against a Ukrainian attack from the Black Sea. Notably, Russian forces installed dragon’s teeth on beaches along the coastline, turning coastal areas into fortified zones. The reinforced concrete anti-tank obstacles were placed directly on the beach to impede the movement of tanks and mechanized infantry. The construction proves that Russia feels the urgency to build new fortifications before Ukraine exploits the situation.

In the short term, these defenses were designed to counter Ukrainian raids and special forces incursions, an understandable concern given that such operations have already occurred repeatedly. However, the newly built dragon’s teeth fortifications are largely ineffective against this type of threat.
Ukrainian special forces raids in Crimea are typically fast, small-scale, and multi-domain, combining maritime insertion, reconnaissance, sabotage, and rapid strike actions. Teams move covertly across the Black Sea, often switching to low-profile craft near the coast, and operate under the cover of darkness or poor weather. They are frequently supported by drones for surveillance and targeting, as well as intelligence from partisan networks. Once ashore, they aim to disable radar and electronic warfare systems, striking isolated assets or gathering intelligence before rapidly withdrawing. Crucially, these operations are defined by speed and dispersal, making static coastal barriers like dragon’s teeth largely irrelevant. Their limitations suggest that the deeper Russian concern driving these fortifications is not small raid prevention, but the possibility of larger maritime or combined-arms scenarios.

In the long term, these defenses are particularly effective against a bigger combined landing operation. These attacks from the sea would only complement the main attack from the north since Ukraine lacks the capabilities to land enough forces on Crimea and keep them supplied. It would require a sufficient number of landing ships, which Ukraine doesn’t have, and total dominance over the western part of the Black Sea, combined with air superiority. Although this scenario seems unlikely at first glance, Russia is actively preparing for it by installing anti-tank obstacles because the conditions around Crimea are worsening every day.

One of the reasons for Russia’s concern is that Russian advances along the front have stalled, while Ukrainian forces have recently begun making territorial gains across a broader section of the battlefield. At the same time, Ukraine's campaign of medium-range strikes against logistics infrastructure is becoming increasingly disruptive, steadily reducing the flow of fuel, ammunition, and other supplies into Crimea. Former Russian FSB officer and separatist commander Igor Girkin argued that Ukrainian drone strikes against transportation routes leading to Crimea resemble a classic battlefield-isolation strategy aimed at severing communications and supply lines deep behind the front. He warned that these attacks threaten logistics supporting Crimea, Russian forces along the lower Dnipro River, the Kinburn Spit, and coastal defense positions, adding that they could be preparing the conditions for a future Ukrainian offensive.

Overall, Russia’s newly built coastal fortifications in Crimea point to Russia’s perception of the peninsula’s strategic positions, which have been significantly weakened by Ukraine. As Russian forces face mounting attrition and supply shortages, the situation is likely to worsen further, forcing them to take defensive measures. The key implication is that Moscow is preparing for scenarios it believes it may not be able to reliably control or repel once they develop, which underlies uncertainty and fear.